Cultural participation as an indicator of local government performance: evidence from Italian municipalities

This paper investigates whether cultural participation can be interpreted as an outcome-based indicator of local government efficiency in the cultural policy domain. Rather than focusing solely on budgetary effort, the study examines the extent to which municipal cultural expenditure is associated with observable behavioral responses by citizens, interpreted as a proxy for the efficiency of public cultural expenditure. Using an original panel dataset covering Italian provincial capitals from 2010 to 2022, the study analyzes the relationship between per capita cultural expenditure and cultural participation. The empirical strategy combines fixed-effects panel regressions with the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) method for continuous treatments, improving covariate balance across key socio-economic and institutional characteristics. The results show a positive and statistically significant association between municipal cultural expenditure and participation. Cities that invest more in culture tend to display higher participation, even after controlling for contextual factors. Some evidence of spatial interdependence also emerges, suggesting that cultural investments may attract participation from neighboring areas, while current expenditure is more closely associated with local engagement. The robustness of this relationship is further supported by the application of GPS reweighting. These findings suggest that cultural participation can function as an outcome-based proxy for the efficiency of public cultural expenditure, capturing the extent to which local governments translate financial resources into participation outcomes.