Forecasting of Industrial Output and Greenhouse Gas Emission: A Study on BRICS Nations

It is a well-established fact that the current amount of global gaseous pollution is mainly due to the growing industrial activities which use fossil fuel as one of their main sources of energy. There is a compulsion upon the emerging nations to cut down the levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in general, and carbon emissions in particular, to the desirable levels by the year 2030. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to forecast GHGs emissions and industrial outputs in the BRICS nations up to the year 2040, based upon the base values of 1970–2019. The results, using the Box-Jenkins model, show the levels of industrial output are projected to increase for all member countries and, with respect to GHGs emissions, the forecast values for all countries are projected to increasing, except for Russia where they will be declining. The findings suggest that replacing outdated technologies with advanced energy-saving and environmentally friendly alternatives could play a key role in mitigating future emissions. Increased investment in R&D activities may further support the development of green capital and efficiency improvements.