Tracking institutional trust across the Arab world: a temporal DP2-based approach

Political trust is crucial for governance stability, especially in regions facing persistent conflict and political transitions. This study analyzes the evolution of institutional trust in eight Arab countries, assessing the impact of uprisings, coups, and governance crises after the Arab Spring. Using a temporal parametric index based on the Peña Distance Method (DP2), we measure trust fluctuations across institutional contexts. Findings indicate that political instability leads to sharp declines in institutional trust, as seen in Tunisia (2018–2021), Sudan (2019–2021), and Libya (2014–2019). However, in some cases, transitional governance has facilitated partial trust recovery, suggesting that institutional legitimacy can be restored through reforms and transparent governance. This study contributes to the political conflict and governance debate by providing a quantitative framework to assess trust fluctuations in post-crisis contexts. It highlights the challenges of institutional legitimacy in fragile states, where authoritarian resurgence and contested transitions shape public perceptions of governance. Future research should examine how transitional policies and democratic governance can mitigate trust erosion in post-conflict environments.