The dynamics of trade firms during the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Via Padova, Milan

This paper investigates trade firms’ dynamics in the Via Padova neighbourhood at the end of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed local economies and it has resulted in economic downturns, income inequalities and increased unemployment. While the current literature analyses widely its impacts on international trade, little attention has been given to the resilience of trade firms at the urban level. The containment measures to limit the pandemic have caused temporary closings of non-essential goods firms, while forcing other firms offering essential goods to stay open, albeit the many difficulties encountered. Since the Via Padova neighbourhood has one of the highest densities of trade firms in Milan, this makes it an interesting study area to test the effects associated with the containment measures. Exploring the data about trade firms’ survival rates related to the period 2019–20 demonstrates a certain resilience of local firms. The number of firms closing down decreases in 2020, while the variation in the active ones tends to become insignificant compared with the previous year. The negative effects on non-essential goods firms persist during the first wave of the pandemic, whereas during the second wave essential goods firms are especially affected. These dynamics of resilience towards hostile economic and social conditions caused by the pandemic are a useful clue for reconsidering and developing new recovery policies.